Imboni yemishini kagesi namandla emhlabeni wonke ingena esigabeni esibalulekile sokuguqula ngo-2026. Ukuguqulwa kwamandla avuselelekayo kanye nokuvuselelwa kwegridi kuqhuba izinguquko ezinkulu zesakhiwo. Lo mkhakha uyazuza ekukhuleni okuqinile, okuqhutshwa ukwamukelwa kwamandla ahlanzekile kanye nesidingo sikagesi esikhulayo. Kodwa-ke ubhekene nezinselelo ezikhulayo, okuhlanganisa imikhawulo yochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa, ukulungiswa kwemithetho, kanye noshintsho olusheshayo kwezobuchwepheshe. Ngokusebenzisa umbiko wakamuva we-IEA Electricity 2026, idatha yamasiko yomhlaba wonke, kanye nempumelelo yakamuva embonini, lo mbiko uhlola izitayela ezibalulekile, izinselelo eziyinhloko, kanye neziqondiso zesikhathi esizayo zemboni kulo nyaka.
Ukubusa Okuvuselelwayo Kuqinisa, Kukhuthaze Ukuthuthukiswa Kwemishini Esezingeni Eliphezulu
Unyaka ka-2026 ungunyaka odumile wengxube yamandla omhlaba: amandla avuselelekayo adlule ngokusemthethweni amalahle njengomthombo kagesi omkhulu kunayo yonke emhlabeni, okuqeda ukubuswa kwamalahle cishe iminyaka eyikhulu, ngokwe-IEA. I-PV yelanga nomoya manje kubalwa cishe u-20% wokukhiqizwa kwamandla omhlaba. I-PV yelanga iyisigaba esikhula ngokushesha, lapho ukukhiqizwa kwamandla omhlaba ngonyaka ka-2025 kufinyelele ku-620 TWh—kukhuphuke kakhulu kusuka ku-450 TWh ngo-2024. Kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule amandla omoya, enuzi, kanye namanzi maduze.
Lokhu kwanda okusheshayo okuvuselelwayo kuqhubekisela phambili ukuthuthukiswa emkhakheni wemishini yamandla, kudlulela ngale kwesidingo esiyisisekelo kuya kwizixazululo ezisebenza kahle kakhulu nezihlakaniphile. Imishini yokudlulisa amandla kagesi aqondile (i-HVDC) ixazulula izidingo zokudlulisa amandla avuselelekayo zebanga elide, ezilahlekelwa kancane. Imakethe yayo yomhlaba wonke ikhule ngaphezu kuka-25% ngo-2026. Ama-inverter ahlakaniphile—anomthethonqubo oxhunywe kugridi kanye nokuhambisana kokugcina amandla—manje ajwayelekile kumaphrojekthi amasha elanga nawomoya. Okuphawulekayo ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwemishini yokudlulisa amandla kagesi e-UHV kanye ne-DC eguquguqukayo eChina kukhuphuke ngo-81.5% unyaka nonyaka ezinyangeni ezimbili zokuqala zika-2026, okuhola uchungechunge lokuphakelwa kwamandla olusezingeni eliphezulu emhlabeni jikelele.
Ukwanda Kwesidingo Esiqhubekayo Kubeka Ukuqina Kwe-Supply Chain Ebalulekile
Isidingo sikagesi emhlabeni wonke sikhula kakhulu, sikhuphuka ngo-3.7% ngo-2026—cishe izikhathi ezingu-2.5 kunesilinganiso sokukhula kwesidingo sikagesi sisonke. I-IEA ikhomba ukufakwa kukagesi kwezimboni, ukwanda kwesikhungo sedatha se-AI, ukungena kwe-EV okukhuphukayo, kanye nemithwalo ephezulu yokupholisa ehlobo njengezinto ezibalulekile. Iminotho esafufusa izofaka isandla cishe ku-80% wesidingo sikagesi esisha emhlabeni wonke ngo-2030. Iminotho ethuthukile nayo ibona ukusetshenziswa kukagesi okubuyayo, kanye ne-AI kanye nokukhiqiza okuphezulu njengezinjini ezintsha zokukhula.
Lesi sidingo esiqhubekayo siqinise ukuphakelwa kwezingxenye ezibalulekile. Ama-transformer, ama-switchgear, kanye nezintambo zikagesi ophezulu zihlala zingekho, kanti izikhathi zokuhola zemikhiqizo ethile ebalulekile zithatha izinyanga ezingu-8-12. Abakhiqizi bakhulisa umthamo kodwa babhekene nezingqinamba: amanani ethusi ne-aluminium ayashintshashintsha ngaphezu kuka-20% ngonyaka, futhi ukuphazamiseka kwempahla kwenzeka ngezikhathi ezithile. Ukuze kulungiswe, izinkampani eziningi zisheshisa ukwakheka okuhlukahlukene kwe-"China+N". Zithuthela umkhiqizo othile eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ngenkathi ziqinisa uchungechunge lokunikezwa kwamandla oluyinhloko lwaseShayina ukuze kuncishiswe izingozi ze-geopolitical kanye nezemakethe. Imakethe yemishini yokudlulisa amandla nokusabalalisa yango-2026 yomhlaba wonke ilinganiselwa ku-USD 142.8 billion, kanti ama-transformer alinganiselwa ku-38.2% - okugqamisa indima yawo eyinhloko.
Okuphawulekayo ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwemishini kagesi eShayina kukhule kancane kancane iminyaka emithathu ilandelana. Ukuthunyelwa kwemishini kagesi ngo-2025 kufinyelele cishe ku-374 billion zamaRandi aseMelika (cishe ama-yuan ayizigidigidi ezingu-2.6), ukwanda okungu-26% unyaka nonyaka—amaphuzu angu-10.4% aphezulu kunonyaka odlule. Ama-Transformers ahola ukukhula, enza cishe u-41% wengqikithi yokuthunyelwa kwemishini kagesi. Lo mfutho uhambisana nokucindezela kwenqubomgomo yeminyaka emithathu yaseShayina yokuzinzisa lo mkhakha, uhlose ukukhula kwemali engenayo yonyaka engu-6% yemishini kagesi yendabuko ngo-2026.
Ukuthengiswa Kwesitoreji Sebhethri Kuyavuthwa, Ukuqina Kwegridi Okuqinile
Izindleko zokugcina amabhethri eziwa ziye zasheshisa ukuhlanganiswa kwawo ezinhlelweni zamandla. Ngemuva kokwehla ngo-27% unyaka nonyaka ngo-2025, izindleko zokugcina amahora amane zizinzile ku-$78-80/MWh ngo-2026. Amanani ebhethri esikalini sezinsiza aseduze no-$80/kWh—cishe aphansi ngo-50% kunango-2023. Le nzuzo yezindleko yenza izinhlelo zokugcina amandla ebhethri (i-BESS) zincintisane nezitshalo ezikhiqiza igesi ezimakethe eziningi, okuqhuba ukukhula okuqinile kwamandla okugcina amandla elanga emhlabeni jikelele.
Intuthuko yezobuchwepheshe ikhulisa ukusetshenziswa kwesitoreji samabhethri. Amabhethri e-Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) asetshenziswa kabanzi, okwandisa ukuminyana kwamandla kanye nokusebenza kahle kokuhlanganiswa. Isidingo sikhula futhi semishini esekelayo: izinhlelo zokuphatha amabhethri (i-BMS), izilawuli zegridi ezihlakaniphile, kanye namathuluzi okulawula imvamisa. Lokhu kubalulekile ekubhekaneni nokuguquguquka kwamandla avuselelekayo. Ngo-2026, ubuchwepheshe bebhethri lokugeleza koketshezi buthuthuka ngokushesha, kanye nokuthuthuka kwezinto ze-electrode kanye namafomula e-electrolyte kunciphisa izindleko futhi kuthuthukiswe ukuzinza—ukusekela isitoreji sesikhathi eside sokuhlanganiswa okukhulu okuvuselelwayo. I-IEA igcizelela ukuthi isitoreji samabhethri, esihambisana nokuthuthukiswa kwegridi, sizovula amandla aphelele e-revwables, kanye nomthamo wesitoreji womhlaba wonke omiselwe ukwanda kakhulu ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nomgomo wamandla aphansi angu-50% ka-2030.
Izinguquko Zesifunda Ziyahlukahluka, kanye Nabathumeli Bempahla Base-Asia Abahola Indlela
Imakethe yemishini yamandla yomhlaba wonke ka-2026 ikhombisa umehluko ocacile wesifunda. I-Asia isalokhu iyisizinda sokunikezwa kanye nesidingo: Ukuthunyelwa kwemishini yamandla kagesi eShayina kukhuphuke ngo-32.7% unyaka nonyaka ezinyangeni ezimbili zokuqala. IMpumalanga Ephakathi, iNyakatho Melika, kanye neYurophu kunesidingo esikhulu sezingxenye ezisebenzisa amandla aphansi kanye nama-transformer okusabalalisa. Ukuthunyelwa kwemishini kagesi eJapane kukhuphuke ngo-11.3% unyaka nonyaka, kuqhutshwa imishini ehlobene ne-semiconductor, kanye nokuthunyelwa okunamandla eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia (eMalaysia, eVietnam).
EYurophu, uhlelo lwe-EU lwe-"Fit for 55" lusheshisa ukukhishwa kukagesi osebenzisa amalahle, lukhulisa isidingo semishini yegridi ehlakaniphile kanye nokugcinwa kwamandla. Imakethe ye-EV yesifunda nayo iqhubekisela phambili isidingo: Amazwe ayi-9 aseYurophu athengise izimoto ezintsha zamandla ezingu-207,000 ngoJanuwari 2026, okuwukwenyuka okungu-23.1% unyaka nonyaka, ngesilinganiso sokungena esingu-29.5%. IJalimane, iFrance, i-Italy, neSpain zandise noma zathuthukisa uxhaso lwe-EV, okwandisa isidingo sengqalasizinda yokushaja kanye nokusekela imishini yamandla.
ENyakatho Melika, i-US ihola ekufakweni kwesitoreji samabhethri emhlabeni wonke ngenxa ye-Investment Tax Credit (ITC). Kodwa-ke, imiyalelo yendawo kanye nemikhawulo yokuhweba kukhulisa izindleko zemishini. Abasebenzi begridi abathathu abakhulu base-US bavunyelwe ukukhulisa ugesi ngamaRandi ayizigidigidi ezingama-75. Bazokwakha imigqa yamandla kagesi ephezulu kakhulu engu-765kV, ekhula ibe ngamamayela ayi-10,000—umthamo wamanje ophindwe kane. Lokhu kubhekana nengqalasizinda endala: ama-transformer angu-70% kanye nemigqa yokudlulisa amandla aneminyaka engaphezu kwengu-25 ubudala, kanti ama-circuit breaker angu-60% angaphezu kwama-30. Okwamanje, ukusetshenziswa kwamandla esikhungo sedatha se-AI okwandayo—okulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele ku-6.7%-12.0% kagesi wase-US ngo-2028—kuqhuba ukuthuthukiswa okwengeziwe kwegridi kanye nesidingo semishini, lapho kuvela khona i-800VDC kanye nokupholisa koketshezi njengobuchwepheshe obubalulekile.
Izimakethe ezisafufusa eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia nase-Afrika ziyizingongolo ezintsha zokukhula. Ukwanda kwezindawo zasemadolobheni kanye nokufakwa kukagesi kuholela ekudingweni kwemishini eyisisekelo yokudlulisa nokusabalalisa. Kodwa-ke, ukutshalwa kwezimali okunganele kwegridi kanye nomthamo wobuchwepheshe kunciphisa ukukhula.
Umbono Wesikhathi Eside: Ukutshalwa Kwezimali Kwegridi Nokusungula Izinto Ezintsha Kuqhuba Ukukhula Okusimeme
I-IEA ibikezela ukuthi amandla akhipha ugesi omncane—aholwa yizinto ezivuselelekayo kanye nenyukliya—azofinyelela ku-50% wokukhiqizwa kwamandla emhlabeni wonke ngo-2030, kusuka ku-42% ngo-2025. Lokhu kudinga ukwanda okungu-50% kokutshalwa kwezimali kwegridi yomhlaba wonke minyaka yonke, kusukela ku-$400 billion wamanje. Kuzodala isidingo esiqhubekayo semishini yamandla esebenza kahle, ehambisanayo, nehlakaniphile kuzo zonke izinhlaka zokuhlala, zezentengiselwano, kanye nezezimboni. Inselelo ebalulekile isasele: ukwakhiwa kwegridi kusalele emuva ekuthuthukisweni komthombo wamandla, njengoba kunezinhlelo ezingaphezu kuka-250 GW ezivuselelekayo, zokugcina amandla, kanye nezikhungo zedatha ezilinde ukuxhumeka emhlabeni jikelele.
Ukusungula izinto ezintsha kwezobuchwepheshe kuzoba yisihluthulelo sokunqoba izithiyo. Ukwenziwa kwedijithali, ubuhlakani, kanye nokwakha imvelo kuyizindlela eziyinhloko zokuthuthukiswa kwemishini. Ubuchwepheshe begridi ehlakaniphile, amawele edijithali, kanye nemishini engathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni kuzobona ukusetshenziswa okubanzi. Ukuhambisana nokusebenza kahle kwamandla omhlaba kanye nezindinganiso zokukhishwa kwekhabhoni nakho kuzoba yimfuneko yokufinyelela emakethe. Lokhu kusunduza izinkampani ukuthi zisheshise ukukhiqizwa okudala imvelo futhi zakhe izinhlelo zokubala i-carbon footprint. Ukusekelwa kwenqubomgomo yaseShayina—kufaka phakathi imboni yezimboni kanye nokwanda kwemakethe—nakho kusekela ukukhula kwemboni yomhlaba.
Ukuthatha Okubalulekile
Unyaka ka-2026 uwunyaka obalulekile embonini yemishini kagesi namandla emhlabeni jikelele. Ushintsho oluvuselelekayo seluvuthiwe, ukwenziwa kwesimanje kwegridi kuyashesha, futhi imakethe ikhula kancane kancane. Kodwa-ke ukuqina kweketanga lokuphakelwa, ukwenziwa kabusha kobuchwepheshe, kanye nokuhambisana nemithetho kuyinselele ebalulekile. Kubahlinzeki bemishini, impumelelo incike ekubambeni amathuba avela ekuhlanganisweni okuvuselelwayo, ukuthuthukiswa kwegridi, kanye nokuthengiswa kwesitoreji samabhethri—ngenkathi kuthuthukiswa ukuguquguquka kweketanga lokuphakelwa kanye nokusungula izinto ezintsha. Imboni iqhubekela phambili ekusaseni elisebenza kahle, elihlakaniphile, nelihlala isikhathi eside, elisekelwa imigomo yokuguquka kwamandla emhlabeni jikelele.
Umthombo: Umbiko we-IEA Electricity 2026, Izibalo Zokuhweba Ngezintela Zomhlaba Wonke, Ucwaningo Lwemboni, kanye Nezibuyekezo Zamuva Zemakethe (Mashi 2026); UMnyango Wezimboni Nobuchwepheshe Bolwazi waseShayina; Izikhungo Zocwaningo Lwemboni
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Mashi-24-2026
