Njengoba imboni yomhlaba wonke yemishini kagesi neyamandla ingena onyakeni obalulekile we2026, ushintsho lwesakhiwo oluqhutshwa ukuguqulwa kwamandla avuselelekayo kanye nokuvuselelwa kwegridi luyaqhubeka nokujula. Ngenkathi lo mkhakha ujabulela ukukhula okukhuthazwa ukwamukelwa kwamandla ahlanzekile kanye nesidingo sikagesi esikhulayo, ubhekene nezinselelo ezikhulayo ezivela ezinkingeni zochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa, izinguquko zomthetho kanye nokuguqulwa kobuchwepheshe. Ngokusebenzisa idatha yakamuva evela ku-IEA Electricity 2026 Report, izibalo zokuhweba ngamasiko zomhlaba wonke kanye nocwaningo lwemboni, lesi sihloko sigxila ezindleleni ezintsha,izinselele eziyinhloko kanye neziqondiso zesikhathi esizayoukwakha imboni ngo-2026.
1. Ukubusa Okuvuselelwayo Kuhlanganisa, Kuqhubekisela Phambili Isidingo Sokuthuthukiswa Kwemishini Esezingeni Eliphezulu
Unyaka ka-2026 uphawula ukuguquka komlando kwengxube yamandla omhlaba: amandla avuselelekayo adlule ngokusemthethweni amalahle njengomthombo kagesi omkhulu kunayo yonke emhlabeni, eqeda ukubuswa kwamalahle cishe iminyaka eyikhulu njengoba kubikezelwe yi-IEA. I-PV yelanga kanye namandla omoya ndawonye kubalwa cishe u-20% wokukhiqizwa kwamandla omhlaba, kanti i-PV yelanga ivela njengengxenye ekhula ngokushesha kakhulu—ukukhiqizwa kwayo kwaminyaka yonke kufinyelele ku-620 TWh ngo-2025, ukwenyuka okukhulu kusuka ku-450 TWh ngo-2024, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule amandla omoya, enuzi kanye namanzi esikhathini esifushane. Lokhu kwanda okusheshayo akusagcini ngokudingeka kwemishini eyisisekelo; kunalokho, kuqhuba igagasi lokuthuthukisa emkhakheni wemishini yamandla.
Ngokuphikisana nokuhlanganiswa okukhulu okuvuselelwayo, isidingo semishini ehlakaniphile esebenza kahle kakhulu siyakhula. Imishini yokudlulisa amandla kagesi aqondile (i-HVDC), exazulula inkinga yokudluliselwa kwamandla avuselelekayo okude nokulahlekelwa okuncane, ibone izinga lokukhula kwemakethe yomhlaba wonke elingaphezu kuka-25% ngo-2026. Okwamanje, ama-inverter ahlakaniphile anamakhono okulawula axhunywe kugridi kanye nemisebenzi yokufanisa isitoreji samandla abe yizilungiselelo ezijwayelekile zamaphrojekthi amasha elanga nawomoya. Okuphawulekayo ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwe-UHV yaseShayina kanye negiya lokudlulisa eliguquguqukayo le-DC kukhuphuke ngo-81.5% unyaka nonyaka ezinyangeni ezimbili zokuqala zika-2026, okuhola uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwemishini olusezingeni eliphezulu emhlabeni jikelele.
2. Ukwanda Kwesidingo Kuyaqhubeka, Ukuqina Kwe-Supply Chain Kuba Ukuncintisana Okuyinhloko
Isidingo sikagesi somhlaba wonke sigcina umzila waso wokukhula okunamandla, sikhuphuka ngo-3.7% ngo-2026—cishe izikhathi ezingu-2.5 zesilinganiso sokukhula kwesidingo samandla sisonke—esiqhutshwa ugesi wezimboni, ukwandiswa kwesikhungo sedatha se-AI, ukungena kwe-EV kanye nokwanda kwemithwalo yokupholisa ehlobo. Iminotho esafufusa isalokhu iyinjini eyinhloko yokukhula, inikela cishe ku-80% wesidingo sikagesi omusha womhlaba wonke ngo-2030, kuyilapho iminotho ethuthukile nayo ibona ukusimama kokusetshenziswa kukagesi, kanye ne-AI kanye nokukhiqiza okuphezulu kuba abashayeli abasha bokukhula.
Lokhu kukhula okuqhubekayo kwesidingo kuye kwaqinisa kakhulu ukunikezwa kwezingxenye ezibalulekile. Ama-transformer, ama-switchgear kanye nezintambo ze-high-voltage zihlala zingekho, kanti izikhathi zokuhola zeminye imikhiqizo ebalulekile zifinyelela ezinyangeni ezingu-8-12. Abakhiqizi bandisa umthamo wokukhiqiza, kodwa babhekene nezithiyo ngenxa yokuguquguquka kwentengo yezinto zokusetshenziswa—amanani ethusi ne-aluminium aguquguquka ngaphezu kuka-20% ngonyaka—kanye nokuphazamiseka kwempahla ngezikhathi ezithile. Ukuze kulungiswe lokhu, amabhizinisi amaningi asheshisa ukwakheka okuhlukahlukene kwe-"China+N", ehambisa ingxenye yamandla okukhiqiza iye eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ngenkathi ehlanganisa uchungechunge oluyinhloko lokuphakelwa eShayina, ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukuqina ngokumelene nezingozi ze-geopolitical kanye nezemakethe. Imakethe yomhlaba wonke yemishini yokudlulisa amandla kagesi kanye nokusabalalisa ilinganiselwa ku-USD 142.8 billion ngo-2026, lapho ama-transformer ebalelwa ku-38.2% wesabelo semakethe, eqokomisa isikhundla esiyinhloko sezingxenye ezibalulekile embonini.
3. Ukugcinwa Kwebhethri Kuyavuthwa Kwezentengiselwano, Kuba Yinsika Ebalulekile Yokuguquguquka Kwegridi
Ukwehla okuqhubekayo kwezindleko zokugcina amabhethri kuye kwasheshisa ukuhlanganiswa kwawo ohlelweni lwamandla. Ngemva kokwehla okungu-27% unyaka nonyaka ngo-2025, izindleko zokugcina amabhethri amahora amane zizinzile cishe ku-$78-80/MWh ngo-2026, ngamanani entengo yebhethri esezingeni lokusetshenziswa asondela ku-$80/kWh—cishe aphansi ngo-50% kunango-2023. Le nzuzo yezindleko yenze izinhlelo zokugcina amandla ebhethri (i-BESS) zincintisane nezitshalo ezikhiqiza igesi ezimakethe eziningi, okwenza kube nokwengezwa kwamandla okugcina amandla elanga emhlabeni wonke ukuze kugcinwe izinga lokukhula eliphezulu.
Ngale kokwehla kwezindleko, intuthuko yezobuchwepheshe yandisa izimo zokusetshenziswa kwesitoreji sebhethri. Ubuchwepheshe bebhethri le-Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) buye bamukelwa kabanzi, okuthuthukisa ukuminyana kwamandla kanye nokusebenza kahle kokuhlanganiswa kwesistimu. Okwamanje, isidingo semishini esekelayo njengezinhlelo zokuphatha amabhethri (i-BMS), izilawuli zegridi ezihlakaniphile kanye nemishini yokulawula imvamisa sikhula ngokushesha, njengoba zibalulekile ekuxazululeni ukuguquguquka kanye nokuguquguquka kokukhiqizwa kwamandla avuselelekayo. I-IEA ikhomba ukuthi isitoreji sebhethri, kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwegridi, kuzoba yisihluthulelo sokuvula amandla aphelele amandla avuselelekayo, kanye nomthamo wesitoreji womhlaba wonke okulindeleke ukuthi wande kakhulu ukusekela umgomo wamandla aphansi angu-50% ngo-2030.
4. Ukuguquguquka Kwesifunda Kuyahlukahluka, Abathumeli Bempahla Base-Asia Baqhubeka Nokuhola
Imakethe yemishini yamandla yomhlaba wonke ikhombisa umehluko ohlukile wesifunda ngo-2026. I-Asia isalokhu iyisizinda sokunikezwa kanye nesidingo somhlaba wonke: Ukuthunyelwa kwemishini yamandla kagesi eShayina kukhuphuke ngo-32.7% unyaka nonyaka ezinyangeni ezimbili zokuqala, ngesidingo esinamandla sezingxenye eziphansi zamandla kagesi kanye nama-transformer okusabalalisa eMpumalanga Ephakathi, eNyakatho Melika naseYurophu. Ukuthunyelwa kwemishini kagesi eJapane nakho kukhuphuke ngo-11.3% unyaka nonyaka, kuqhutshwa imishini ehlobene ne-semiconductor, ngokuthunyelwa okuqinile emazweni aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia njengeTaiwan, iMalaysia neVietnam.
EYurophu naseNyakatho Melika, ukwenziwa kwesimanje kwegridi kanye nokusetshenziswa kwamandla avuselelekayo yizona zinto ezibangela isidingo semishini. Uhlelo lwe-EU lwe-"Fit for 55" lusheshise ukukhishwa kwamandla asebenzisa amalahle, lwakhulisa isidingo semishini yegridi ehlakaniphile kanye nezinhlelo zokugcina amandla. I-US izuza kwi-Investment Tax Credit (ITC) kanye nezinqubomgomo ezihlobene, ezihola ukuthunyelwa kwesitoreji samabhethri emhlabeni jikelele, kodwa ibhekene nezindleko eziphezulu zemishini ngenxa yemiyalelo yendawo kanye nemikhawulo yokuhweba. Izimakethe ezisafufusa eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia nase-Afrika ziba yizingongolo ezintsha zokukhula, ngesidingo esikhulayo semishini yokudlulisa amandla eyisisekelo kanye nokusabalalisa eqhutshwa ukwakhiwa kwamadolobha kanye nokufakwa kukagesi, kodwa kunqunyelwe ukutshalwa kwezimali kwegridi okunganele kanye namandla obuchwepheshe.
5. Umbono Wesikhathi Eside: Ukutshalwa Kwezimali Kwegridi Nokusungula Izinto Ezintsha Kwezobuchwepheshe Kuqhuba Ukukhula Okusimeme
I-IEA ibikezela ukuthi amandla akhipha ugesi omncane—aholwa yizinto ezivuselelekayo kanye nenyukliya—azobalelwa ku-50% wokukhiqizwa kwamandla emhlabeni wonke ngo-2030, kusuka ku-42% ngo-2025, okudinga ukwanda okungu-50% kokutshalwa kwezimali kwegridi yomhlaba wonke minyaka yonke kusukela ezingeni lamanje lamaRandi ayizigidigidi ezingu-400. Lokhu kutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu kuzodala isidingo esiqhubekayo semishini yamandla esebenza kahle, ehambisanayo nehlakaniphile kuzo zonke izinhlaka zokuhlala, zezentengiselwano kanye nezezimboni. Kodwa-ke, imboni nayo ibhekene nezinselele: ukwakhiwa kwegridi kusalele emuva ekuthuthukisweni komthombo wamandla, njengoba kunezingaphezu kuka-250 GW zamandla avuselelekayo, isitoreji samandla kanye namaphrojekthi esikhungo sedatha alinde ukuxhunywa kugridi emhlabeni jikelele.
Uma sibheka phambili, ukusungula izinto ezintsha kwezobuchwepheshe kuzoba yisihluthulelo sokuqeda izithiyo. Ukwenziwa kwedijithali, ubuhlakani kanye nokwakha imvelo kuzoba yizindlela eziyinhloko zokuthuthukisa imishini—ubuchwepheshe begridi ehlakaniphile, izinto ezimbili zedijithali kanye nemishini engathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni kuzosetshenziswa kabanzi. Okwamanje, ukuhambisana nezindinganiso zokusebenza kahle kwamandla emhlabeni wonke kanye nemithethonqubo yokukhishwa kwekhabhoni kuzoba yimfuneko yokufinyelela emakethe, kuphoqe amabhizinisi ukuthi asheshise ukuguqulwa kokukhiqiza okuluhlaza kanye nokwakhiwa kwesistimu yokubala ye-carbon footprint.
Ukuthatha Okubalulekile
Unyaka ka-2026 uwunyaka obalulekile embonini yemishini kagesi namandla emhlabeni jikelele: ushintsho lwamandla avuselelekayo selungene esigabeni esivuthiwe, ukwenziwa kwesimanje kwegridi kuyashesha, futhi imakethe ikhula kancane kancane, kodwa ukuqina kweketanga lokuhlinzeka, ukuphindaphinda kobuchwepheshe kanye nokuhambisana nemithetho kube yizinselele ezibalulekile. Kubahlinzeki bemishini, ukusebenzisa amathuba alethwa ukuhlanganiswa kwamandla avuselelekayo, ukuthuthukiswa kwegridi kanye nokuthengiswa kwesitoreji samabhethri, ngenkathi kuthuthukiswa ukuguquguquka kweketanga lokuhlinzeka kanye namakhono okusungula ubuchwepheshe, kuzoba yisisekelo sokuthola isabelo semakethe. Imboni iqhubekela phambili ekusaseni elisebenza kahle, elihlakaniphile nelizinzile, ngomfutho wokukhula wesikhathi eside osekelwa ngokuqinile yimigomo yokuguquka kwamandla emhlabeni jikelele.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Mashi-19-2026
