Imboni Yomhlaba Wonke Yemishini Kagesi Namandla: Izinto Ezivuselelekayo Zikhuthaza Ukukhula Phakathi Kokuthuthukiswa Kwegridi

Izitayela Eziyinhloko Zemboni (2025-2026)

Umkhakha wemishini kagesi namandla emhlabeni wonke ubhekene noshintsho lwesakhiwo oluholwa ukwamukelwa kwamandla avuselelekayo, ukwanda kwesidingo sikagesi kanye nokuvuselelwa kwegridi. Njengoba kusekelwa idatha enegunya, ngezansi kunezindlela ezisebenzayo nezisekelwe emaqinisweni ezishintsha imakethe.

1. Izinto Ezivuselelekayo Zidlule Amalahle Njengomthombo Wamandla Ohamba Phambili ngo-2026

Ngokombiko we-Electricity ka-2026 we-IEA, i-renewables izodlula amalahle njengomthombo kagesi omkhulu kunayo yonke emhlabeni ngo-2026—ukuqeda ukubuswa kwamalahle cishe iminyaka eyi-100. I-solar PV nomoya kuzobalelwa ku-20% wokukhiqizwa kwamandla emhlabeni wonke ngo-2026 (kusuka ku-15% ngo-2024), kanti i-solar PV izodlula amandla omoya, enuzi kanye namanzi eminyakeni ezayo. Lolu shintsho luphakamisa isidingo sama-inverters e-PV, ama-transformer, amagiya aphezulu kanye nemishini yokusabalalisa.

2. Ukukhula Kwesidingo Sikagesi Esiqophayo Kuqinisa Ukunikezwa Kwezingxenye

Isidingo sikagesi emhlabeni wonke sizokhuphuka ngo-3.3% (2025) kanye no-3.7% (2026), okuzophinda kabili ijubane lokukhula kwamandla jikelele, okubangelwa ukufakwa kukagesi kwezimboni (60% kusuka e-Asia), ukwanda kwesikhungo sedatha/i-AI kanye nokwamukelwa kwe-EV. Lokhu kukhula kudale ukutholakala okuncane kwezingxenye ezibalulekile: ama-transformer, ama-switchgear, ama-circuit breakers kanye namakhebula, okuphoqa abakhiqizi ukuthi bandise umkhiqizo.

3. Izindleko Zokugcina Ibhethri Ziyawa, Kukhulisa Isidingo Sokuguquguquka Kwegridi

Idatha ye-BloombergNEF ikhombisa ukuthi izindleko zokugcina amabhethri amahora amane zehle ngo-27% ngonyaka zaya ku-$78/MWh ngo-2025 (okuyirekhodi eliphansi kakhulu), okwandisa u-87GW wokwengezwa kwamandla okugcina amandla elanga emhlabeni wonke ngonyaka odlule. Izindleko eziwayo ziqhuba isidingo sokulawula igridi ehlakaniphile, izinhlelo zokuphatha amabhethri (i-BMS) kanye nemishini yokuzinza ukusekela ukukhiqizwa okuvuselelwayo okuguquguqukayo.

4. Abathumeli Bamazwe Base-Asia Bahola Ekukhuleni Kochungechunge Lokuphakelwa Komhlaba Wonke

Idatha yamasiko yasekuqaleni kuka-2026 ikhombisa ukuthunyelwa kwemishini kagesi okuqinile okuvela e-Asia: Ukuthunyelwa kwemishini kagesi eShayina kukhuphuke ngo-32.7% ngonyaka (Jan-Feb), kanti i-UHV kanye negiya lokudlulisa eliguquguqukayo le-DC likhuphuke ngo-81.5%. Isidingo somhlaba wonke sezingxenye ezine-voltage ephansi kanye nama-transformer okusabalalisa sisalokhu sinamandla kulo lonke elaseMpumalanga Ephakathi, eNyakatho Melika naseYurophu, kanye neziphepho ezincane ezivela ezindleleni zezinto zokusetshenziswa kanye nezindleko zezokuthutha.

5. Umbono Wesikhathi Eside: Ukutshalwa Kwezimali Kwegridi Ukuze Kukhuthaze Ukukhula Okuzinzile

I-IEA ibikezela ukuthi amandla akhipha ugesi omncane azofinyelela ku-50% wokukhiqizwa kukagesi emhlabeni wonke ngo-2030 (kusuka ku-42% ngo-2025), okudinga ukutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu kwegridi kanye nendawo yokugcina izinto. Lokhu kudala isidingo esiqhubekayo semishini kagesi esebenza kahle nehambisanayo kuzo zonke izindawo zokuhlala, zezentengiselwano kanye nezezimboni.

Okubalulekile: Umkhakha wemishini kagesi uhlelelwe ukukhula okuqhubekayo ngo-2026, okuxhaswa yinguquko evuselelekayo kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwegridi. Abahlinzeki abagxile ezixazululweni ezisebenza kahle kakhulu, ezihlakaniphile nezisimeme bazobamba amathuba amaningi emakethe.
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Ngendlela, yonke imininingwane itholakala ku-IEA Electricity 2026 Report kanye nedatha yokuhweba ngezimpahla zomhlaba wonke.